Fez were looking third-best in free practice, but they seem to be better on race pace at the mo, so I won't count them out.
Merc look favorite. Turns 3 (where Max and Lando got together two years ago and Kimi wiped out Max last year) and turn 4 are battlegrounds that always produce some drama. I think this is the quickest lap on the calendar, even if Monaco is a bit shorter. Hoping for race that matches the setting.