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The freakin cone stretches from the Keys to Apalachicola! They just issued a Flood watch here already.

cuss2 wacky eek banghead yep

NHC Link

Last edited by Nixer; 10/05/24 06:50 PM. Reason: Added NHC Map

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GFS shows landfall just north of Tampa.

Link

It was pretty accurate the last few storms. I thought I was done with this crapola for the year.


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All we can do at this point is be prepared and hope that the storm doesn't strengthen more than the NOAA is predicting.


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Why it's so busy this hurricane season???

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Because it’s not.


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It has been a very busy late season in the Atlantic and Gulf.

From a smart hurricane guy yesterday (a bit climate change brainwashed IMO), Sat Oct 5:

"If TD 14 follows the current NHC forecast and hits a heavily populated portion of Florida as a high-end Cat 2, storm surge damage will be in the billions, and could exceed $10 billion. TD 14 is predicted to be an average-sized hurricane near the time of landfall, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. But since the storm will be pushing its storm surge over the large area of shallow waters off the west coast of Florida, a large and destructive storm surge can be expected. Assuming that TD 14 hits at high tide and is at category 2 strength, water levels in excess of 6 feet (1.8 m) above normally dry ground are likely for about a 100-mile swath of the coast near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. A storm surge in excess of 9 feet (2.7 m) would likely occur along a 20-mile stretch of coast where the right-front eyewall traverses."

Link

If a CAT IV goes in the mouth of Tampa Bay, it's THE nightmare.


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It has been a quiet hurricane season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/21/hurricane-season-atlantic-tropical-storms/

It has gone from quiet to normal/active just now.

For Nixer, me, and CyBerkut the storm has just done a small shift to the south in the projected path. Good news for us and Tampa. Bad news for Sarasota and Fort Myers.


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Well, all the talk on the Hurricane blogs is for another jog north back towards Tampa. Lots can happen in the next three days.

Here's the latest GFS model. It now has Milton heading N of Tampa right at us N of Tampa, S of Cedar Key guys. Watch it all the way thru to see ANOTHER Cat II+ coming up across Cuba, then towards the Bahamas next week! Last run had it going right over S. Florida!

Link

Make sure you use the 1200Z run.


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Milton definitely hitting Tampa. I hope everyone prepares in that area since there is still time.


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Tampa, Sarasota, Venice...

"The most vulnerable metropolitan area in the U.S. to storm surge damage is Tampa/St. Petersburg. That’s according to a 2015 report by Karen Clark & Company, Most Vulnerable US Cities to Storm Surge Flooding. Their 1-in-100-year storm (with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year) was a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds. Such a storm striking just north of Tampa Bay could be expected to cause $230 billion in damage (2024 USD) – just from the storm surge."

More good news


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I’m just back from my long trip only to come back right into the Heart of Darkness.

The path is not changing to the south anymore. Looks like south Tampa (Bradenton area). Tampa will see a very bad storm surge. This could be like Katrina.

I am putting up my plywood sheets over windows and doors. Supplies laid in. Batteries sufficient. Water ready. Cars full.

I feel pretty confident I will be ok. Nixer and CyBerkut are 20+ miles north of me so they should get less.


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I had an uncle who lived in St Pete. After his funeral in about 1995 some of the family went to a restaurant before heading back to SC, a hurricane was inbound within 24 hours. I remember there being an old photograph on the wall of the restaurant showing Tampa Bay empty of water, a hurricane passing had sucked it all out they said. Anyone have any idea what storm did this, and when?


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All this low pressure behind that that occluded front that moved past me last night is gonna suck it northward.

We have at least one member in Sarasota. I hope he has somewhere to go.


If I have to I am heading to my friends bunker out in the woods Wed AM or so if needed. Not staying in this one way ticket to Oz in anything approaching cane winds. nope


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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
I had an uncle who lived in St Pete. After his funeral in about 1995 some of the family went to a restaurant before heading back to SC, a hurricane was inbound within 24 hours. I remember there being an old photograph on the wall of the restaurant showing Tampa Bay empty of water, a hurricane passing had sucked it all out they said. Anyone have any idea what storm did this, and when?


I believe it's this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane


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We sold our beach front condo in Daytona six years ago. At the time I regretted the sale, but we had twenty great years there, however were tired of dealing with the hurricanes, even with the roll down storm shutters and everything else we had installed. Sometimes the winds were so strong they simply would push water through the outer walls, inches deep to where afterwards mold would grown inside them. The mold afterwards was almost always worse than the storm itself. We were very high up, so the surge was never an issue, yet I can somewhat imagine the uncertainty of those who are low to the ground. Stay safe, everyone. Let's hope he blows elsewhere before he gets closer. Not good for anyone in the path, regardless.

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Originally Posted by F4UDash4
I had an uncle who lived in St Pete. After his funeral in about 1995 some of the family went to a restaurant before heading back to SC, a hurricane was inbound within 24 hours. I remember there being an old photograph on the wall of the restaurant showing Tampa Bay empty of water, a hurricane passing had sucked it all out they said. Anyone have any idea what storm did this, and when?


It has also happened more recently ( Maybe less severely ).

Ian in 2022
Irma in 2017

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracki...g-bayshore-boulevard-hillsborough-river/

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Now opting for Plan GTFO of Dodge. Heading for Tallahassee first thing in the AM. Probably will take 12+hours to get there. My friend with the bunker finally realizing all those trees around his place are bad news. Ground is already soaked. Steady 50+ knot winds are going to take a LOT of trees down in my neck of the woods. Hwy 41 north is almost bumper to bumper now. I wanted to leave now. Oh well, sure not taking my car.


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A lot of trees around my house, which is a concern. Many of them are not actually on my property, which makes preventative measures difficult.

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