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Ok it's a goal, not a set date. And even if they miss this goal the next alignment is in 2028 and I wouldn't bet against SpaceX being ready by then, with crewed trips in 2030. And they are sure to launch at least 2-3 Starships on the first uncrewed attempt(s) to increase the chances of success.

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Will these crewed trips in 2030 be a one way ticket? That's my understanding unless something recent has changed.

I don't think so, not initially.

In the past they've talked about plans to send ahead Starships that have atmosphere processing facilities aboard that will take the Martian atmosphere and turn it into oxygen and methane fuel with which to refuel later Starships so that those can return to Earth. But once enough infrastructure has been built up on Mars the one way trips will begin.

I think it will depend upon how much capability that gets built into the Starships and their cargo on the first unmanned ships to land. Each of those Starships can carry quite a bit of cargo. There has been work on a nuclear power design that can be transported and deployed. Tesla robot design is coming along nicely, plus there are competing designs that could be utilized if better suited to some tasks. If they were to land several Starships together on the unmanned wave, and had room for more to land close by in subsequent manned missions, robots might be able to have enough things setup to support staying longer term.

It's an awfully long trip to Mars. That, and the cost, is going to provide some incentive to stay longer than just planting a flag and coming back with samples... if the necessary logistics (which are daunting) can be covered.

Crew selection is going to be quite daunting as well. Getting the right skill set combined with suitable psychological profiles is tough enough for a 'there and back' trip... but add in the needs for a longer term stay on Mars and it likely would narrow down the candidate field considerably.

I agree -- and then some.

My viewpoint is that AI Robots with human like bodies and minds should be making the trips at first (both to the Moon and Mars). That is, figure out how to "do it right" and "prove it" before risking human lives.

Yes, that adds a decade or two (or more) while the Human Like Bodied Robot AI is improved.

But, the "rush to send people" is all about publicity, and about the age of the folks doing the work wanting to see the outcome in their lifetime.

In my opinion

We could send robots to the top of Everest, Antarctica or train robots to compete in sports for our entertainment... but there is intrinsic value in humans going and doing these things.

I would not be surprised if an unmanned Starship could make the trip to Mars and back by 2026 but a landing with a potential for a return in the same Starship, that seems to be be the tricky part.

You’d need to assure that the engines are not damaged in the touch-down on the surface because the same engines need to fire reliably to get you off the surface. There’s no ascent stage on top of a lander. This is assuming you land on Mars soil.

Furthermore, if you want to duplicate the procedure as seen at Starbase with tower and catch-arm, you need someone or something (ideally the robots) to construct the infrastructure and I’m not convinced the robots are that advanced yet. And how do you produce the metals and alloys in-situ? Or do you ship them up from Earth?

Also, you’d need to allow for refuelling and generally turn-around of the vessel.

Finally, you need to convince the people who think that man controls the climate to go, in order to test their theories and to practice their terraforming skills a safe distance from Earth so in that sense, a one-way trip would definitely be preferable.

Realistically, I think it will take at least another ten years before we’re even remotely near a first colony, probably more like another fifty.

I think that timeline sounds a bit ambitious. I don't have a problem with trying, but I will be very surprised if they make it. The Starship seems to be progressing, but I don't believe quickly enough to hit that timeline.

I hope I’m alive to see it.

So do I.

I don't want to be too much of a pessimist but I highly doubt there will be a permanent colony on Mars during my lifetime.

The truth is, this will not be for the faint of heart. The actual very real possibility is that Astronauts face the possibility that they will not survive the trip, the landing or the stay and if they survive all that, they could very well be marooned with no return.

Given the practical limitations of just living on ISS and the deterioration of the human body from just a few months in space, I think that any type of sustained habitation of Mars to be unlikely. The space agencies should just make it abundantly clear to all volunteers that the mission would be one-way. Even so, I bet that there would still be applicants lined up around the block.

Yes, the first one(s) to land are at greater risk with landing on soil I would think.

Musk's vision for colonization appears to include landing pads once things have progressed.


The Starbase tower with catch arms is due to the need for the Super Heavy booster utilized in Earth's gravity well. Starship is not supposed to need that for launching from Mars or the moon.


Yes. That was a factor in choosing the type of fuel used. It can be extracted from the Martian atmosphere.


. I like it!

Finding people with that philosophy that also meet the psych profiles and skill sets needed seems... improbable.


In light of Musk's determination and abilities... I'm thinking closer to ten than fifty.

He went at this with a design philosophy of designing for mass production.

All very possible. I think it is safe to say that the people selected for early Martian missions will not be laboring under any illusions.

The deterioration during ISS stays comes down to lack of gravity and increased radiation exposure.

Martian gravity, while only about 1/3 of Earth's, should still go a long ways toward reducing the bone loss experienced on ISS stays. Radiation exposure can be reduced via shielding on Mars habitats. Options include living in Martian caves that have been sealed off to contain atmosphere, or piling a lot of dirt on top of structures on the surface.

It definitely won't be a picnic!

As for the "round trip", that's a bit of a problem, as you would launch to Mars while Earth and Mars are in favorable positions for a short trip, and you would want to do the same for the trip back - and that only happens every 26 months.

You could also consider to "slingshot" right back, but that would not be very fuel efficient, and then wonder why did you even go there - we already know hat we can do such maneuvers.

.So you will have to prepare for >2 years in space, with >year sitting in orbit and/or on Mars waiting for the right time to go back.

Which will require a lot of resources to send along, most likely in multiple ships, one of them being the return ship that they maybe want to leave in space to conserve some fuel from not landing and starting from the surface.

Good post WC. In other words, human travel to Mars will be a Herculean task and human colonization of Mars even more so.

I'm confident those things will eventually happen but just not in my lifetime.

Such risks taken by fearless explorers are essential for the survival of mankind. In the days of pre-Renaissance yore, many a sailor boarded a clapboarded ship and set sail across uncertain seas.

"Hark! There be monsters!" The craven, lily-livered naysayers would cry. "The Kraken, the Kraken! Remember Odysseus!"

And yet, despite these stalwart omens of doom, many a man of gristle and courage boarded the decks, hoisted the sails and were swept off by the winds to either plunder, discovery or doom.

Many never returned.

But the few who did... oh, they had grand tales to tell. And because of those brave souls, all of us sit here today, behind computer keyboards, clacking away on our American-borne inventions. A Continent, a Country, a creative, hard-working society flourishes now because a few bold souls were willing risk their lives on the gambit tolls.

If they really want to do a short 'plant the flag and bring back samples' visit, they just launch slightly before the date to launch for optimum alignment, and depart Mars just slightly after the date for optimum alignment.

That is a lot of travel time spent cooped up on spaceship for not all that much return in value. I think the incentive to get more done will mean doing more logistics-wise to support either a long term mission, or establishing a permanent habitat. That will require a lot more, but I suspect Musk / SpaceX will be up for it when the time comes.